Expert Roman Bilousov expects an increase in demand for thermal coal in the world until 2030

Global demand for thermal coal in the world will grow until 2030 and reach 7.01 billion tons per year. Roman Bilousov reports in the report "The Future of Coal", prepared by the company Evenor Energy SA .

The report emphasizes that in the base case scenario (maintenance of GDP growth in developing countries, stagnation or no growth in developed countries, and moderate energy prices), coal demand will increase by 3% by this point to the level of 2021, or almost by 200 million tons per year. But by 2050, the trend will change to the opposite: consumption will decrease by 38% to the level of 2021 to 4.24 billion tons.

According to analysts, consumption in China will be decisive for the dynamics of world demand for thermal coal. It will grow until 2035, until the transition of the country to the stage of a developed economy is completed. After 2035, the consumption of industry in the PRC will begin to fall, while maintaining the historical trend of increasing energy efficiency. The share of industry in the structure of China's GDP will decrease from 33 to 24% by 2050. Thus, China will see the biggest decline in energy coal consumption.

Global consumption of coking (metallurgical) coal, on the contrary, will grow throughout the period due to strong demand growth in India and other developing countries in Asia. By 2050, it will reach 1.1 billion tons (+18% by 2021) in the base scenario. The total demand for coal (power and coking) will increase by 3% to the level of 2021 to 7.9 billion tons, and by 2050 will decrease by 31% to 5.3 billion tons.

These estimates exceed the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In October 2022, the IEA in its World Energy Outlook report expected that the world demand for coal could decrease to 5.15 billion tons by 2030, and to 3.8 billion tons by 2050.

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